Alabama A&M

Conference:	SWAC
Expected RPI:	350.0
Current RPI:	350
Expected SOS:	342
Current SOS:	342
Current Record:	3-28
Expected Record:	3-28
Current Conf Record:	3-15
Expected Conf Record:	3-15
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	3-19
Current OOC Record:	0-13
Expected OOC Record:	0-13
Expected OOC RPI:	342
Expected OOC SOS:	184

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
3-28	350.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Alabama A&M.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-11	Ohio (204.0)	MAC	A	61-53	L	0%
11-13	Samford (296.0)	SC	A	87-68	L	0%
11-17	Alabama (42.0)	SEC	A	104-67	L	0%
11-21	Minnesota (171.0)	B10	A	100-57	L	0%
11-24	Niagara (163.0)	MAAC	A	96-74	L	0%
11-25	Western Carolina (215.0)	SC	N	82-72	L	0%
11-29	Georgia St. (120.0)	SB	H	53-63	L	0%
12-2	Austin Peay (164.0)	OVC	A	67-47	L	0%
12-11	DePaul (186.0)	BE	A	83-59	L	0%
12-13	Southern Miss (207.0)	CUSA	H	54-69	L	0%
12-16	UAB (155.0)	CUSA	A	90-58	L	0%
12-21	Michigan (12.0)	B10	A	97-47	L	0%
12-23	Georgetown (169.0)	BE	A	89-49	L	0%
1-1	Grambling St. (249.0)	SWAC	A	64-71	W	100%
1-3	Jackson St. (330.0)	SWAC	A	59-56	L	0%
1-6	Arkansas Pine Bluff (307.0)	SWAC	H	62-69	L	0%
1-8	Mississippi Valley St. (349.0)	SWAC	H	65-55	W	100%
1-13	Alabama St. (333.0)	SWAC	A	70-67	L	0%
1-20	Alcorn St. (348.0)	SWAC	A	68-52	L	0%
1-22	Southern (315.0)	SWAC	A	62-61	L	0%
1-27	Texas Southern (222.0)	SWAC	H	56-58	L	0%
1-29	Prairie View A&M (247.0)	SWAC	H	67-88	L	0%
2-3	Arkansas Pine Bluff (307.0)	SWAC	A	80-62	L	0%
2-5	Mississippi Valley St. (349.0)	SWAC	A	77-67	L	0%
2-10	Alabama St. (333.0)	SWAC	H	50-69	L	0%
2-17	Alcorn St. (348.0)	SWAC	H	60-80	L	0%
2-19	Southern (315.0)	SWAC	H	50-60	L	0%
2-24	Texas Southern (222.0)	SWAC	A	106-71	L	0%
2-26	Prairie View A&M (247.0)	SWAC	A	71-58	L	0%
3-1	Grambling St. (249.0)	SWAC	H	74-84	L	0%
3-3	Jackson St. (330.0)	SWAC	H	66-59	W	100%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Alabama A&M's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Alabama A&M's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Alabama A&M.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Alabama A&M	SWAC	26.26	26.26	9.63	9.63	-21.20	-21.20
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	4.21	4.21	41.94	41.94	-0.68	-0.68
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	4.21	4.21	36.36	36.36	-1.15	-1.15
Texas Southern	SWAC	4.20	4.20	40.62	40.62	-0.79	-0.79
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	4.15	4.15	10.00	10.00	-3.32	-3.32
Southern	SWAC	4.15	4.15	37.93	37.93	-1.00	-1.00
Jackson St.	SWAC	4.09	4.09	32.14	32.14	-1.46	-1.46
Alabama St.	SWAC	4.09	4.09	20.69	20.69	-2.40	-2.40
Alcorn St.	SWAC	4.08	4.08	19.23	19.23	-2.51	-2.51
Grambling St.	SWAC	4.04	4.04	53.57	53.57	0.29	0.29
Samford	SC	1.72	1.72	24.14	24.14	-0.89	-0.89
UAB	CUSA	1.72	1.72	56.67	56.67	0.23	0.23
Minnesota	B10	1.71	1.71	45.16	45.16	-0.17	-0.17
Western Carolina	SC	1.69	1.69	34.48	34.48	-0.53	-0.53
Southern Miss	CUSA	1.69	1.69	37.93	37.93	-0.41	-0.41
DePaul	BE	1.67	1.67	33.33	33.33	-0.56	-0.56
Michigan	B10	1.66	1.66	78.79	78.79	0.96	0.96
Georgetown	BE	1.66	1.66	48.28	48.28	-0.06	-0.06
Georgia St.	SB	1.66	1.66	67.74	67.74	0.59	0.59
Ohio	MAC	1.66	1.66	41.38	41.38	-0.29	-0.29
Alabama	SEC	1.64	1.64	54.55	54.55	0.15	0.15
Niagara	MAAC	1.64	1.64	58.06	58.06	0.26	0.26
Austin Peay	OVC	1.61	1.61	51.72	51.72	0.06	0.06
Iowa	B10	0.31	0.31	42.42	42.42	-0.05	-0.05
Chattanooga	SC	0.24	0.24	25.81	25.81	-0.11	-0.11
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.24	0.24	48.39	48.39	-0.01	-0.01
Troy	SB	0.20	0.20	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Mercer	SC	0.19	0.19	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.18	0.18	69.70	69.70	0.07	0.07
Oregon	P12	0.17	0.17	64.71	64.71	0.05	0.05
Creighton	BE	0.16	0.16	64.52	64.52	0.05	0.05
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.16	0.16	69.70	69.70	0.06	0.06
Baylor	B12	0.16	0.16	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
LSU	SEC	0.16	0.16	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Toledo	MAC	0.15	0.15	66.67	66.67	0.05	0.05
Illinois	B10	0.15	0.15	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Maryland	B10	0.15	0.15	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.15	0.15	27.59	27.59	-0.07	-0.07
UT Arlington	SB	0.15	0.15	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
BYU	WCC	0.15	0.15	70.59	70.59	0.06	0.06
Tulane	Amer	0.13	0.13	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Furman	SC	0.13	0.13	67.74	67.74	0.05	0.05
Miami OH	MAC	0.13	0.13	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
North Texas	CUSA	0.13	0.13	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.13	0.13	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.13	0.13	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.13	0.13	76.67	76.67	0.07	0.07
St. John's	BE	0.13	0.13	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Marquette	BE	0.13	0.13	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Central Michigan	MAC	0.13	0.13	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.13	0.13	63.33	63.33	0.03	0.03
Providence	BE	0.13	0.13	61.76	61.76	0.03	0.03
Clemson	ACC	0.13	0.13	71.88	71.88	0.06	0.06
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.13	0.13	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Cincinnati	Amer	0.12	0.12	88.24	88.24	0.10	0.10
Northwestern	B10	0.12	0.12	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Purdue	B10	0.12	0.12	82.35	82.35	0.08	0.08
Ohio St.	B10	0.12	0.12	75.00	75.00	0.06	0.06
Texas A&M	SEC	0.12	0.12	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.11	0.11	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.11	0.11	71.88	71.88	0.05	0.05
The Citadel	SC	0.11	0.11	27.59	27.59	-0.05	-0.05
UNC Greensboro	SC	0.11	0.11	77.42	77.42	0.06	0.06
VMI	SC	0.11	0.11	25.00	25.00	-0.05	-0.05
Wofford	SC	0.11	0.11	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Butler	BE	0.11	0.11	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Seton Hall	BE	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Villanova	BE	0.11	0.11	88.24	88.24	0.08	0.08
Xavier	BE	0.11	0.11	84.85	84.85	0.07	0.07
Buffalo	MAC	0.10	0.10	75.76	75.76	0.05	0.05
Akron	MAC	0.10	0.10	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Kent St.	MAC	0.10	0.10	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.10	0.10	32.14	32.14	-0.04	-0.04
Massachusetts	A10	0.10	0.10	39.39	39.39	-0.02	-0.02
UNLV	MWC	0.10	0.10	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Utah	P12	0.10	0.10	63.33	63.33	0.03	0.03
Michigan St.	B10	0.10	0.10	87.88	87.88	0.07	0.07
Nebraska	B10	0.10	0.10	68.75	68.75	0.04	0.04
Auburn	SEC	0.10	0.10	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
Canisius	MAAC	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Texas St.	SB	0.10	0.10	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Hawaii	BW	0.09	0.09	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.08	0.08	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.08	0.08	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.08	0.08	16.67	16.67	-0.05	-0.05
South Dakota	Sum	0.08	0.08	73.33	73.33	0.04	0.04
FIU	CUSA	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
UTEP	CUSA	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
UTSA	CUSA	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.08	0.08	17.24	17.24	-0.05	-0.05
VCU	A10	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.08	0.08	84.38	84.38	0.05	0.05
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.08	0.08	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
South Alabama	SB	0.08	0.08	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Liberty	BSth	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Memphis	Amer	0.08	0.08	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Jacksonville	ASun	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas	SEC	0.08	0.08	67.65	67.65	0.03	0.03
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.08	0.08	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
UCF	Amer	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Fairfield	MAAC	0.08	0.08	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Georgia Southern	SB	0.08	0.08	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Syracuse	ACC	0.07	0.07	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Indiana	B10	0.07	0.07	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Rutgers	B10	0.07	0.07	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Iowa St.	B12	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Yale	Ivy	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Belmont	OVC	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Bowling Green	MAC	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	15.62	15.62	-0.04	-0.04
East Carolina	Amer	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Murray St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	82.76	82.76	0.04	0.04
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.05	0.05	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Seattle	WAC	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Charlotte	CUSA	0.05	0.05	17.86	17.86	-0.03	-0.03
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Richmond	A10	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Appalachian St.	SB	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.05	0.05	24.24	24.24	-0.03	-0.03
Missouri St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.05	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
Winthrop	BSth	0.05	0.05	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.05	71.43	71.43	0.02	0.02
Arkansas St.	SB	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Little Rock	SB	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Manhattan	MAAC	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Marist	MAAC	0.05	0.05	19.35	19.35	-0.03	-0.03
Monmouth	MAAC	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.05	0.05	36.36	36.36	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Utah St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Mississippi	SEC	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.05	0.05	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Houston	Amer	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
New Mexico	MWC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	83.33	83.33	0.03	0.03
Tulsa	Amer	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.05	0.05	70.00	70.00	0.02	0.02
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Kansas	B12	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Oakland	Horz	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
TCU	B12	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Texas	B12	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Washington St.	P12	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Fresno St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
North Dakota	BSky	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Oregon St.	P12	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Pacific	WCC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Santa Clara	WCC	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
SMU	Amer	0.05	0.05	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Weber St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
College of Charleston	CAA	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.01	0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	58.62	58.62	0.00	0.00
Evansville	MVC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Florida St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
High Point	BSth	0.03	0.03	40.74	40.74	-0.00	-0.00
Howard	MEAC	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Maine	AE	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Morehead St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	22.22	22.22	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Valparaiso	MVC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Virginia	ACC	0.03	0.03	93.94	93.94	0.02	0.02
Western Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	6.67	6.67	-0.02	-0.02
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
New Orleans	Slnd	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Notre Dame	ACC	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Portland	WCC	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
Army	Pat	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	32.35	32.35	-0.01	-0.01
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Cornell	Ivy	0.03	0.03	40.74	40.74	-0.00	-0.00
Drake	MVC	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Harvard	Ivy	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Miami FL	ACC	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Montana	BSky	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.01	0.01
New Hampshire	AE	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
USC Upstate	ASun	0.03	0.03	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
Arizona	P12	0.02	0.02	79.41	79.41	0.01	0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.02	0.02	20.00	20.00	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.02	0.02	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Lipscomb	ASun	0.02	0.02	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.02	0.02	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.02	0.02	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Rhode Island	A10	0.02	0.02	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Tennessee	SEC	0.02	0.02	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
UC Riverside	BW	0.02	0.02	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
UCLA	P12	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01